The Risk
Friday Night Logue Breaking Down the Jag
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The Jacksonville Jaguars currently rank dead last in points scored this season -- and it isnt particularly close. The difference between Jacksonville and the 31st ranked team is the same as the 31st ranked team and the 25th ranked team. While a myriad of injuries to skill position players hasnt Duke Johnson Jersey helped, the Jaguars couldnt come up with any creative solutions to boost offensive production for much of the season. But a recent tweak to its play action attack has helped Jacksonville improve both its efficiency and explosivene s in the pa s game. Jacksonville has increased its play action rate from 23.8% in the first 14 weeks of the season to 30.6% in the past two weeks (per Sports Info Solutions). Truthfully, thats only the difference in three or so plays per game and is skewed by game script as much as anything else. The more significant and constructive change is the Jaguars having raised its play action rate specifically under center from 9.7% to 22.4%. Trevor Lawrence has delivered an incredible 95% rate of catchable throws on play action in the past two weeks despite throwing the ball much ... her down field on average. His play action numbers have improved acro s the board with completion percentage being the only downgrade, but that number (as well as the others) would be higher if Sam Waardenburg Jersey it werent for several dropped pa ses.Last week Lawrence easily had his best performance of the past two-plus months by both the eye test and The Analytics (shoutout Troy Aikman). Granted, it was against a league-worst Jets defense, but it isnt a coincidence that it was also the first game of the season that the Jaguars ran double-digit play action pa ses from under center.One reason that the offense has found succe s with these plays is that it buys time for Lawrence to stay in the pocket and for receivers to get downfield. Play action from under center is much better at misdirecting defenders and typically has more pa s blockers available than play action from shotgun. Scroll to ContinueAnd more time available means more deep-shot opportunities. The Jaguars ranked 30th in average depth of target on play action pa ses from weeks 1-14 but rank 12th in that metric in the past two weeks. The offense has consequently improved its number of both 10- and 15-plus yard completions per game. Jacksonvilles initial goal on play action was to take advantage of Lawrences mobility outside of the pocket: it used designed rollouts on play action at the sixth highest rate in the league in the first 14 weeks of the season. This allowed Lawrence to be able to read one side of the field and use his Zach Johnson Jersey legs to pick up easy yards if given the opportunity, but while it theoretically made the quarterbacks job easier, it also lowered the chances of a big play. Excluding broken plays, the best-chance scenario on these designs is typically an easy throw to move Anthony Lawrence II Jersey the chains. But while Lawrence can run extraordinary well for a 66 human, its undebatable that his best physical trait is his arm talent -- and thats exactly what under center play action pa ses have unlocked. These play action pa ses to intermediate or deep parts of the field is where Ru sell Wilson thrived in Seattle under Brian Schottenheimer and Darrell Bevell before him. These coaches now have a bigger say in Jacksonvilles offensive approach for the post-Urban Meyer Jaguars, and its clear that Lawrence is prospering as a result.Other ThoughtsIn case you mi sed it, the Jaguars have reportedly set interviews with eight head coaching candidates. Ive made my argument for Nathaniel Hackett previously in this column, but Jim Caldwell and Kellen Moore are the other names that interest me most. I dont think re-signing Cam Robinson or placing the franchise tag on him for a second straight season is out of the equation for Jacksonville, but that could change with a strong performance from Walker Little on Sunday (Robinson is on the COVID list). Hes the Jaguar Ill be paying the most attention to this week.FNL bets are now 4-2 on the season. This week Im betting the under on Trevor Lawrences pa sing yards total (200.5). Chris Lykes Jersey Lawrence has the mental and physical capabilities to challenge Bill Belichick, but considering his lack of experience and the environment around him, he should be expected to struggle on the road in New England. The Jaguars will also be without four of its five starting offensive linemen due to COVID protocols against a Patriots defense that ranks sixth in pre sure rate. The narrative of Belichick dominating opposing rookie quarterbacks should continue this weekend.
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